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CDC data reveals 200,700 more people died than usual from March to July

Data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention revealed that there were overall 200,700 excess deaths during the pandemic – surpassing the confirmed 160,000 COVID-19 death toll.

In August, the United States continued to amass the largest COVID-19 death toll across the world as the number topped 160,000 this week.  

But according to a New York Times analysis of CDC data, there have actually been 200,700 excess deaths in the country from March 15 to July 25. 

The estimated 200,700 excess deaths is 54,000 higher than the official CDC COVID-19 death toll during that specific time period, which was 146,254. 

Excess deaths by CDC standards are defined as ‘the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.’  

Based on CDC data analyzed by The New York Times, places like New York City, New Jersey and New York were among the top five states that recorded above normal levels of deaths during the pandemic

Based on CDC data analyzed by The New York Times, places like New York City, New Jersey and New York were among the top five states that recorded above normal levels of deaths during the pandemic 

New York state, and specifically New York City, topped the analysis' data for having the highest number of excessive deaths during the pandemic so far. Pictured: Healthcare workers wheel a person outside Wyckoff Heights Medical Center during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease

New York state, and specifically New York City, topped the analysis’ data for having the highest number of excessive deaths during the pandemic so far. Pictured: Healthcare workers wheel a person outside Wyckoff Heights Medical Center during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease

The NYT analysis went beyond just COVID-19-related deaths and included deaths from all causes during that period, per CDC reporting. 

This allows for a window into the United State’s death toll that isn’t dependent on the availability of COVID-19 tests in states or the accuracy of reporting in different regions. 

The CDC noted that some deaths related to COVID-19 may accidentally be counted under another category.

‘As some deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not diagnosed or not mentioned on the death certificate), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted,’ the agency wrote. 

Pictured: a graph shows the weekly excess deaths recorded by the CDC between April and July

Pictured: a graph shows the weekly excess deaths recorded by the CDC between April and July

Members of the 128th Brigade Support Battalion of the Pennsylvania Army National Guard work loading boxes of food into cars at a distribution for the Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank in Pennsylvania

Members of the 128th Brigade Support Battalion of the Pennsylvania Army National Guard work loading boxes of food into cars at a distribution for the Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank in Pennsylvania 

The process of counting COVID-19 deaths, and deaths in general during the pandemic, is also marred by several states and the CDC having a lag in reporting. 

The CDC’s estimates are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in the past. 

But the numbers are clear, more Americans died from March 15 to July 25 this year than in previous years and the official COVID-19 death toll contributed to a large chunk of that.

This comes at odds with the Trump administration’s insistence that COVID-19 death toll numbers are greatly exaggerated and a number of conservatives have adopted the conspiracy that the numbers were inflated for political gain.  

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top White House coronavirus task force coordinator, previously dispelled that notion by noting the death toll is ‘almost certainly higher’ that is being reported.

Only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show death toll numbers that resemble previous years

Only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show death toll numbers that resemble previous years

Pictured: Cars form lines at a federally-supported drive-thru testing site for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at PNC Bank Arts Center in Holmdel, New Jersey, which experience a high level of excessive deaths

Pictured: Cars form lines at a federally-supported drive-thru testing site for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at PNC Bank Arts Center in Holmdel, New Jersey, which experience a high level of excessive deaths

Above average death rates have become common in a number of states, including New Jersey and New York.   

The data from the NYT shows that New York City, the country’s original pandemic epicenter, has experienced the most significant increase at 27,000 excessive deaths – seven times higher than normal.

Similarly, the analysis determined that several sates with deaths at least 10 percent above average level had increased. 

New Jersey recorded an estimated 18,000 excess deaths during that four month period, while New York State has 14,200 such deaths. 

Only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show death toll numbers that resemble previous years. 

Excess Deaths from March 15 to July 25                                                                                                                                          Source: New York Times
State % above normal    Excess Deaths  Reported COVID-19 deaths 3/15 to 7/25   Gap 
*New York City  143   27,200 22,946 4,200 
New Jersey  69    18,000  15,774  2,200 
New York (excluding NYC)  40    14,200  9,347  4,900 
Texas   18    13,400  5,002  8,500 
California  14    13,000  8,423 5,000 
Pennsylvania  28    10,500  7,167 5,800 
Illinois  29    10,500  7,593 2,900 
Michigan   28    9,900  6,402 3,500 
Florida  13    9,700  5,773 4,000 
Massachusetts  42    8,200  8,419 — 
Arizona   27    6,100  3,288 2,800 
Connecticut  75    5,900  4,186  1,700 
Maryland  29    5,200  3,433  1,800 
Ohio 12    4,900  3,132  1,800 
Louisiana  32    4,900  3,508 1,400 
Georgia  15    4,400  3,104  1,300 
Virginia  16    3,900  2,074 1,800 
Indiana  17    3,700  2,820 900 
South Carolina   18    3,200  1,465 1,800 
Mississippi  24    2,700  1,480 1,200 
Colorado  18    2,600  1,793 800 
Alabama  13    2,400  1,456 1,000 
North Carolina  9   2,200  1,239 900 
Missouri  9   2,000  1,224  800 
Minnesota  12   1,800  1,6111 200 
Tennessee  7   1,800  953  800 
Washington State  8   1,700  1,552  100 
Wisconsin 8   1,500  900  600 
Puerto Rico  14    1,100  152  900 
New Mexico  16    1,100  607  400 
Kentucky    1,000  688  300 
Washington D.C.  50    900  578  400 
Delaware  31    800  927  400 
Rhode Island  30    900  523  400 
Nevada    800  733  100
Arkansas    800  399  400 
Iowa    800  826  — 
New Hampshire  15    600  409  200 
Oregon    600  258  300 
Oklahoma     600  421  200 
Utah  8   500  278 200 
Kansas    400  332  100 
Nebraska    300  308  60 
Vermont  16    300  56  200 
Idaho    200  150  100 
South Dakota    100  121  30 
North Dakota    100  94  50 
Maine    100  119  <10 
West Virginia    100  84  40 
Montana    100  37  80 
Wyoming    100  24  90 
Alaska  Below Normal    <0  10  —- 
Hawaii  Below Normal    <0  25  —- 

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