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Melbourne Cup: Tom Waterhouse tips The Chosen One and slams the favourites

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Former bookmaker-turned-tipster Tom Waterhouse has put $10,000 on outsider The Chosen One to win the Melbourne Cup.

The New Zealand bred horse entered the market at $101 to win the race, meaning Waterhouse will net a cool $1 million if the roughie finishes first.

The 37-year-old tipping pro also revealed he would be steering clear of the favourites this year, claiming they offered very little value. 

‘It’s one of the most open Cups we’ve had for a while and the favoured runners don’t interest me,’ he said. 

The former bookmaker turned punter also put money on Latrobe to win, at odds of $21.

Former bookmaker-turned-tipster Tom Waterhouse has put $10,000 on outsider The Chosen One to win the Melbourne Cup

Former bookmaker-turned-tipster Tom Waterhouse has put $10,000 on outsider The Chosen One to win the Melbourne Cup

‘There’s been a real sense of purpose with his build up to the race,’ Waterhouse said. 

‘He’s lightly raced, he’s improving, that’s the sort of profile Aussie punters need to be wary of.’ 

Australia’s most prestigious horse race starts at 3pm with $8million prize money up for grabs.

WHO IS TOM WATERHOUSE?

Tom Waterhouse is a former bookmaker turned punter who offers racing tips to fellow fans of the game.

He is the son of leading horse trainer and businesswoman Gai Waterhouse and is the fourth generation in his family to show an interest in racing.

He co-hosts Sportsline and is a regular contributor on 2GB. 

Racegoers and punters have starting pouring into the Melbourne grounds ahead of the big race. 

Rich Hummerston from Sportsbet said picking a winner on Cup day is all about ‘playing the percentages’.

‘Four and five year olds from the northern hemisphere are you’re best bet. Stallions and geldings have the best strike rate as well,’ Mr Hummerston told Daily Mail Australia on Monday.

‘The track will certainly be soft tomorrow, which will suit the European stayers who are always running in a slop. Avoid horses who haven’t had much success on soft tracks.’

Mr Hummerston tips $9 chance Constantinople to take home the Cup, while liking Irish horse Il Paradiso as an each way chance at $13.

‘Constantinople would have won the Caulfield Cup had it not run into trouble numerous times in the home straight,’ he said.

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‘They’ve booted the jockey, and the ”Magic Man” [Brazilian champion jockey João Moreira] takes over – a big chance.’ 

The New Zealand bred horse entered the market at $101 to win the race, meaning Waterhouse will net a cool $1 million if the roughie finishes first

The New Zealand bred horse entered the market at $101 to win the race, meaning Waterhouse will net a cool $1 million if the roughie finishes first

The Racing Post also tipped Constantinople to fare well, but made Finche the favourite to take home the cup.

‘Fourth in last year’s Melbourne Cup after finishing third in the Geelong Cup, Finche has looked better than ever this campaign,’ a tipster told Daily Mail Australia.

‘He was just a place behind Constantinople in the Caulfield Cup last time out and the return to this trip should suit.’

Racing.com expert Jayne Ivil points out that at the Melbourne Cup’s distance a stayer is required – a horse that is optimised for endurance.

She looks for a lighter-framed and not a heavy muscular horse that is deep through the girth and have a good shoulder and rein to hold a good heart and set of lungs.

Ivil identified a handful of contenders with the right attributes, but said Finche, ridden by last year’s winner McEvoy, was that one that ‘encompasses what a traditional stayer should look like’.

The vast majority wagered on the year's biggest race goes straight to the bookies, but someone has to win and you need every edge you can to be one of them (stock image)

The vast majority wagered on the year’s biggest race goes straight to the bookies, but someone has to win and you need every edge you can to be one of them (stock image) 

‘He has size and range, again better in front than behind. I like the physical improvement he has made in 12 months, he has furnished further and filled out his big frame,’ she wrote.

‘Peaking for the right race and had a perfect build-up into a Melbourne Cup. Straightforward in the parade ring.’

Fox Sports racing writer Trevor Marshallsea backed Constantinople, which he said had the same profile as the past two winners Cross Counter and Rekindling.

He is the same age, from Europe, relatively light at 52.5kg, and has only had nine races – just one more than Cross Counter’s eight.  

‘Looked great when fourth under 53kg in the Caulfield Cup, beaten only 1.4 lengths. Ran into terrible luck when blocked behind horses around the home turn, coming wide and surging late,’ he wrote. 

‘At least not winning at Caulfield avoided a penalty for this, and he wasn’t exhausted by the held-up run.’

 

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