in

Terrifying new research shows 10,000 Australians under the age of 30 could DIE from the coronavirus

A best case coronavirus scenario could still leave 50,000 Australians dead, including 10,000 people under 30, new research has warned.

Modelling released on Wednesday predicted Tasmania would be the country’s worst-affected state on a per capita basis, but said NSW would suffer the most deaths.

Data analytics consultancy Evidion’s report said Australians could not afford to be complacent as the death toll raced above 2,400.

Despite strengthening shutdown measures first announced on Sunday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been criticised for not putting Australia in lockdown.

Modelling has predicted 10,000 Australians under the age of 30 could lose their lives to the coronavirus

Modelling has predicted 10,000 Australians under the age of 30 could lose their lives to the coronavirus

A woman wearing a face mask is pictured outside Flinders Street station on Monday. Australians cannot afford to be complacent about the virus' spread, the report warned

A woman wearing a face mask is pictured outside Flinders Street station on Monday. Australians cannot afford to be complacent about the virus’ spread, the report warned

On Tuesday night, he announced a ban on all international travel and placed strict limits on weddings and funerals but stayed firm on keeping schools open.

Evidion, which carried out the modelling of the potential coronavirus impact, said New South Wales was forecast to have 16,600 deaths from the disease. 

Victoria would be second with 13,100 lives lost, but Tasmania could be hardest-hit when taking into account population size – with a forecast 231 deaths per 100,000 people.

‘The report contains a mix of good and bad news for Australia’, the report’s author, former NSW Government chief demographer Justin Douglas, said.

‘One positive, if you can call it that, is that the estimate of 50,000 is towards the bottom end of estimates discussed in the media in recent weeks.’

The report, based on an analysis of coronavirus data published by epidemiologists from the Univeristy of Hong Kong and Harvard University, also found clear differences between Australia and Italy.  

‘These demographic differences should prevent a repeat of the tragedies currently unfolding in Italy, but the Australian community can’t afford to be complacent,’ he said.

But the analysis also contradicted a common perception that coronavirus does not pose a threat to young people. 

‘Evidion’s modelling implies that coronavirus could kill almost 10,000 Australians under the age of 30,’ Mr Douglas said. 

‘It is not only the elderly or those with known health problems that need to be concerned about the coronavirus risk.’

A woman wearing a face mask in Melbourne on Wednesday. New South Wales was forecast to have 16,600 deaths from the disease and Victoria would be second with 13,100 lives lost

A woman wearing a face mask in Melbourne on Wednesday. New South Wales was forecast to have 16,600 deaths from the disease and Victoria would be second with 13,100 lives lost

Predicted deaths per capita: Tasmania could be most vulnerable when taking into account population size - with a forecast 231 deaths per 100,000 people

Predicted deaths per capita: Tasmania could be most vulnerable when taking into account population size – with a forecast 231 deaths per 100,000 people

A state-by-state breakdown of the data revealed the more populous states would have the highest number of cases, but were not necessarily most at risk. 

CORONAVIRUS CASES IN AUSTRALIA: 2,431

New South Wales: 1029

Victoria: 466

Queensland: 443

Western Australia: 205

South Australia: 197

Australian Capital Territory: 44

Tasmania: 42 

Northern Territory: 5

TOTAL CASES:  2,431

DEAD: 9

‘NSW is expected to have the highest coronavirus death toll, in part because it has more people, but also because it is where coronavirus infections are already most established,’ Mr Douglas said.

‘But our modelling shows that Tasmania is Australia’s most vulnerable state once population size is taken into account. 

‘The Tasmanian Government is to be congratulated for acting for being the first to close its border and should continue to do everything it can to protect its people’ 

He also predicted the Northern Territory could have the lowest deaths per capita at 350 per 100,000 people – in part because of its remoteness.

‘However, if the virus reaches remote communities it could be especially devastating due to inadequate housing for people to self-isolate and difficulty accessing suitable medical care in remote areas,’ Mr Douglas said. 

Sydney Airport pictured on Wednesday. Mr Morrison announced on Tuesday a raft of new measures to combat the virus' spread - including a complete shutdown of the border from Thursday to all but essential travel

Sydney Airport pictured on Wednesday. Mr Morrison announced on Tuesday a raft of new measures to combat the virus’ spread – including a complete shutdown of the border from Thursday to all but essential travel

A man is seen wearing a face mask as a preventative measure against the coronavirus in Melbourne on Wednesday

A man is seen wearing a face mask as a preventative measure against the coronavirus in Melbourne on Wednesday

Mr Morrison announced on Tuesday a raft of new measures to combat the virus’ spread – which also included closing food courts at shopping centres and shutting beauty salons – but stopped short of a complete shutdown.   

Medical experts from across Australia have called on the government to shut the country down completely.

UNSW’s Raina MacIntrye, who is part of an expert panel guiding the government on the crisis, recommends an immediate lockdown of the country, including the closure of schools.  

Prof MacIntrye said the majority of the panel agree an immediate, short-term lockdown was needed, but the advice was being ignored. 

‘I was hoping we’d see a more comprehensive lockdown for a short period of time, but that is not the approach we’re taking. It’s more a trickle sort of approach, a little bit by bit, which won’t be as effective at stopping the transmission in the community,’ she told the ABC.    

President of the Australian Medical Association in Western Australia Andrew Miller has also led a team of doctors in an appeal, calling for people and the government ‘to jump on the breaks.’

‘This virus is out of control, and we really got it to stop it to avoid a lot of necessary deaths, not only of healthcare workers, but also of people out there in the community,’ he said. 

‘We really want people to and for the government to please to impose lockdown until we’ve got this under control. We know the people will understand.’

Dr Miller’s message was followed by an emotional 30-second clip showing members of the health community asking people to follow social distancing rules to prevent spread of infection.  

WHAT COULD ‘STAGE THREE’ RESTRICTIONS LOOK LIKE? 

 On Wednesday night, the government were due to discuss ‘stage three’ restrictions in a national cabinet meeting.  

Nobody knows exactly what the next stage will entail – but experts have told Daily Mail Australia that more extreme social distancing measures are inevitable.

‘Distancing can be more extreme and restrictions can be made tougher. Watch this space,’ said Stephen Leeder, a Professor of Public Health at Sydney University.

Schools 

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that he wants schools to stay open so essential workers do not have to worry about childcare and children can continue their education.

He said the health risk of keeping schools open was low because young people are not vulnerable to coronavirus – but some teachers fear they are ‘cannon fodder’ and want the gates closed for their own safety.

 Paul Komesaroff, Professor of Medicine at Monash University, told Daily Mail Australia that closing the schools would be a logical step.

‘The next thing to do is to close schools and universities,’ he said. ‘But that is a big step because it may impact whether parents can go to work.’

In Norway and the UK, schools have been kept open for the children of essential workers such as doctors and nurses and something similar could be arranged in Australia.

Restaurants, cafes and food courts will be restricted to takeaway service only. Pictured: An empty dining area in the once busy strip of restaurants Barangaroo

Restaurants, cafes and food courts will be restricted to takeaway service only. Pictured: An empty dining area in the once busy strip of restaurants Barangaroo 

Some states are already moving towards closing schools by bringing forward holidays.

Tasmania’s school term will end four days early so teachers can prepare online education resources.

Victoria has also closed its schools early, sending 1million pupils home three days before the Easter break which starts this Friday in the state.

Meanwhile, the NSW Teachers Federation is calling for a planned transition to online learning across all state schools as attendance numbers continue to fall due to coronavirus fears.

Businesses 

On Tuesday night, Mr Morrison announced a raft of businesses that would need to close their doors, putting thousands of Australians out of work.

Personal service businesses ‘where there is a lot of contact’, such as beauty therapy, tanning, waxing, nail salons and tattoo parlours will be forced to shut. 

Personal service businesses 'where there is a lot of contact', such as beauty therapy, tanning, waxing, nail salons and tattoo parlours are being forced to shut

Personal service businesses ‘where there is a lot of contact’, such as beauty therapy, tanning, waxing, nail salons and tattoo parlours are being forced to shut

But hairdressers and barbershops are allowed to remain open as well as food markets and shopping centres, except for the food courts.

These businesses could be in the firing line if the government moves further towards a lock down.

In an extreme scenario, only critical businesses such as petrol stations, pharmacies and grocery stores would need to remain open.

 Exercise

Mr Morrison announced on Tuesday that social sports such as large groups of people playing soccer in a park have been banned.

But he said that boot camps and personal training will be allowed to go ahead with less then 10 people.

Yoga and barre sessions, as well as spinning and other exercise sessions, can continue so long as they abide by the 10 people or fewer rule as well. 

These types of exercise classes could be next on the chopping block.

Professor Komesaroff said Australia could eventually follow the lead of other countries and ban group exercise outside the home.

‘We could see rules where you are only allowed out of your home for a run. Or maybe we won’t even be allowed out as in China.’

Gym goers are training outside after fitness clubs and recreation centres were force to shut under new coronavirus health measures. Professor Komesaroff said Australia could eventually follow the lead of other countries and ban all exercise outside the home

Gym goers are training outside after fitness clubs and recreation centres were force to shut under new coronavirus health measures. Professor Komesaroff said Australia could eventually follow the lead of other countries and ban all exercise outside the home

He added: ‘I personally can’t see a problem with some-one running on the street alone because there’s no risk of transmission if they are not in a group.’

Shopping 

Grocery shops will always stay open because people need to buy food.

But there could be limits imposed on the number of people allowed in a supermarket at one time.

Shops could also require customers to better observe social distancing by limiting the number of people in aisles and making them stand two metres apart. 

In Italy, for example, shoppers are forced to wait in ‘socially distanced’ queues just to go to the supermarket.

‘Supermarkets need to have social distancing,’ Professor Komesaroff said.

‘They might limit the number of people and have them two metres apart when they queue. That kind of process is inevitable,’ he said.

Gatherings 

In Italy, for example, shoppers are forced to wait in ‘socially distanced’ queues just to go to the supermarket.

Yoga and barre sessions, as well as spinning and other exercise sessions, can continue so long as they abide by the 10 people or fewer rule as well

Yoga and barre sessions, as well as spinning and other exercise sessions, can continue so long as they abide by the 10 people or fewer rule as well

‘Supermarkets need to have social distancing,’ Professor Komesaroff said.

‘They might limit the number of people and have them two metres apart when they queue. That kind of process is inevitable,’ he said. 

Professor Komesaroff said such measures would help slow the spread of the coronavirus.

‘We’re right at the start of a catastrophic upsurge and we know that the infection numbers will increase drastically,’ he warned.

‘The minute the health service overwhelms, the death rate will increase dramatically. I don’t think we can be overconfident.’

He said a requirement for people to show police a letter explaining why they have left home would likely be considered in the final stage of measures – not in stage three.

 On Wednesday, a 68-year-old cruise ship passenger died from coronavirus, taking Australia’s death toll to nine.

Garry Kirstenfeldt was on board a Royal Caribbean’s Voyager of the Seas that docked in Sydney on March 18.

He died in Toowoomba Hospital in Queensland, where he was being treated in intensive care, on Wednesday afternoon. 

Queensland Health confirmed the man’s death on Wednesday evening and said he had ‘serious underlying medical condition before contracting the virus.’  

Garry Kirstenfeldt (pictured left, with family) died from coronavirus on Wednesday afternoon, taking Australia's death toll to nine

Garry Kirstenfeldt (pictured left, with family) died from coronavirus on Wednesday afternoon, taking Australia’s death toll to nine

The 68-year-old died in Toowoomba Hospital in Queensland, where he was being treated in intensive care

Mr Kirstenfeldt pictured with his family

The 68-year-old died in Toowoomba Hospital in Queensland, where he was being treated in intensive care

Mr Kirstenfeldt was on board a Royal Caribbean's Voyager of the Seas (pictured) that docked in Sydney on March 18

Mr Kirstenfeldt was on board a Royal Caribbean’s Voyager of the Seas (pictured) that docked in Sydney on March 18

‘Queensland Health offers its sincere condolences to his family,’ the department said in a statement. 

‘The man’s family remains in isolation as close contacts.’  

The family issued a statement saying Mr Kirstenfeldt was ‘kind and adorable’. 

It is the second coronavirus-related death in Queensland after a 77-year-old woman from Noosaville died last week after flying in from Sydney.  

Seven people have died in NSW, the country’s worst-hit state, and one in Western Australia. 

Mr Kirstenfeldt’s death comes one day after an elderly woman who contracted coronavirus on board the Ruby Princess died in hospital. 

The family issued a statement saying Mr Kirstenfeldt was 'kind and adorable'

The family issued a statement saying Mr Kirstenfeldt was ‘kind and adorable’

Health officials confirmed the man (far right, in red striped shirt) had a 'serious underlying medical condition before contracting the virus'

Health officials confirmed the man (far right, in red striped shirt) had a ‘serious underlying medical condition before contracting the virus’

Ruby Princess was one of four ships controversially allowed to unload thousands of passengers at Sydney Harbour despite the government having announced a 30-day ban on cruise arrivals just the day before

Ruby Princess was one of four ships controversially allowed to unload thousands of passengers at Sydney Harbour despite the government having announced a 30-day ban on cruise arrivals just the day before

The woman in her 70s, who was one of the first passengers to test positive for the illness, was taken from the cruise ship to hospital after the ship docked in Sydney on March 19.

She died in Royal Prince Alfred Hospital on Tuesday morning, making her the eighth person to die from the virus in Australia. 

Ruby Princess was one of four ships controversially allowed to unload thousands of passengers at Sydney Harbour despite the government having announced a 30-day ban on cruise arrivals just the day before.   

There are also 13 cases in NSW linked to the Ovation of the Seas cruise ship which docked in Sydney last Wednesday, and another seven cases who were on board the Voyager of the Seas which disembarked on the same day. 

Both ships are owned by Royal Caribbean.  

Source link

Written by Angle News

Leave a Reply

Self-isolation amid coronavirus pandemic could lead to deteriorating health

Two nuns are among 23 people dead in new coronavirus tragedy at Spanish old people’s home