SMU vs. Texas State odds, line: 2020 college football picks, predictions from advanced computer model

The SMU Mustangs will look to repeat their success from a year ago against the Texas State Bobcats when they meet Saturday in the season opener. Last season, the teams met at University Park, Texas, in Week 3 and the Mustangs used a huge second half to pull away for a 47-17 victory. SMU led just 13-3 at halftime before breaking loose. SMU rolled up 639 total yards of offense, including 390 on the ground.

The game is slated to start at 4:30 p.m. ET at San Marcos, Texas. SMU opened the 2019 season 8-0, before dropping three of its final five, while Texas State lost its final three games. The Mustangs are favored by 24.5 points in the latest SMU vs. Texas State odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 70. Before making any Texas State vs. SMU picks, be sure to see the college football predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also went a sizzling 8-2 on all picks against the spread during Championship Week last season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on SMU vs. Texas State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds from William Hill and trends for Texas State vs. SMU:

  • SMU vs. Texas State spread: SMU -24.5
  • SMU vs. Texas State over-under: 70 points
  • SMU vs. Texas State money line: SMU -2000, Texas State +1100
  • SMU: QB Shane Buechele started all 13 games in 2019 and completed 62.7 percent of his passes
  • TSU: Scored 37 points off turnovers in 2019

Why SMU can cover

The Mustangs have an explosive offense led by Buechele, but also have a number of talented defensive players returning as well. Senior linebacker Richard McBryde, the team’s leading tackler in 2019, is one of those players. McBryde was a beast a year ago with 98 tackles, including 69 solo, and 9.5 tackles for loss for 36 yards. He also recorded 3.5 sacks, had one pass defended, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. He played in all 13 games, making 10 starts.

Also returning is senior linebacker Delano Robinson. As a junior, Robinson started all 11 games he played, registering 76 tackles, including 51 solo, including six tackles for loss for 21 yards. He also recorded 2.5 sacks for 16 yards and added a fumble recovery, three pass breakups and one quarterback hurry. 

Why Texas State can cover 

Texas State will turn to dual-threat quarterback Brady McBride, a transfer from Memphis who sat out all of last season. McBride played in three games for Memphis in 2018, throwing for 88 yards on 8-of-14 passing with one interception. In high school, McBride was a three-year starter, compiling a 27-10 record and leading his team to three playoff appearances. He completed 501-of-823 passes for 6,516 yards, 86 touchdowns with just 14 interceptions. McBride also rushed for 1,142 yards and 21 TDs.

Another returning weapon is senior Caleb Twyford. After leading the Bobcats in rushing as a running back in 2019, he is switching to wide receiver. In 11 games, including seven as a starter, he carried 108 times for 488 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught 27 passes for 145 yards and a TD. Twyford had the team’s longest run of the season, a 60-yard gain against Arkansas State. He had a season-best 137 yards rushing on 27 attempts against Georgia State.

How to make SMU vs. Texas State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total as no running backs for either team hit the 100-yard mark in the simulations. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins SMU vs. Texas State? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas State vs. SMU spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $3,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.

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