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US Election 2020: Trump marginally ahead of Biden in Texas

President Donald Trump has chipped away at Joe Biden’s lead in the classically red state of Texas, new polling shows. 

A Dallas Morning News poll that was released Sunday shows that Biden’s 5-point lead in the Lone Star State is now a 2-point deficit among likely voters. 

Among that group, 48 per cent support Trump, while 46 per cent back Biden, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.22 per cent.  

President Donald Trump is now ahead of Democrat Joe Biden among likely voters in Texas, after Biden had a 5-point lead in July. Now Trump is beating Biden by 2 points, which is within the survey's margin of error

President Donald Trump is now ahead of Democrat Joe Biden among likely voters in Texas, after Biden had a 5-point lead in July. Now Trump is beating Biden by 2 points, which is within the survey’s margin of error 

Among registered Texas voters, Biden (pictured) is ahead by 1 point, which is also within the poll's margin of error. A Democrat hasn't won the state of Texas since Jimmy Carter won over President Gerald Ford in 1976

Among registered Texas voters, Biden (pictured) is ahead by 1 point, which is also within the poll’s margin of error. A Democrat hasn’t won the state of Texas since Jimmy Carter won over President Gerald Ford in 1976

When the broader group of registered voters is looked at, Biden remains ahead. 

Forty-four per cent of registered voters back the Democrat, while 43 per cent support Trump, with those numbers within the poll’s 2.87 per cent margin of error. 

Like California is for Democrats, Texas is a must-win state for a Republican presidential candidate in order to secure enough Electoral College votes. 

Texas, however, has gotten bluer in recent years, with Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a popular Democrat, getting within 2.6 points of ousting Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.  

And Trump didn’t do as well in Texas as previous Republican nominees. 

In 2016, he won by 9 points, but that was still the worst showing of any GOP candidate on the Texas ballot since 1976, when President Gerald Ford lost the Lone Star state to Democrat Jimmy Carter.  

Additionally, Democrats haven’t won statewide since 1994. 

In April, Biden and Trump were tied in Texas in a previous Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler survey. 

And by early July, Biden had pulled away from Trump, 48 per cent to 43 per cent among likely voters. 

Currently, Trump’s job approval in the state stands at only 40 per cent, including 53 per cent among his fellow Republicans – a factor that could explain the unexpected tightness in the race.  

Trump and his campaign officials have mocked Biden and the Democrats making a play for Texas, suggesting it would be a huge waste of money. 

‘I don’t think Biden’s ultimately going to spend $6 million in Texas,’ senior campaign adviser Jason Miller told reporters last week on a press call. ‘I think it would be great if he did. I’d welcome him to do it. Texas TV stations would love to have it.’   

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